W.Minh Tuan

Since last week, around January 15, 2024, the Ukrainian side has begun to tone down and accept the proposal of peace negotiations with Russia, but the negotiating positions are still rigid and high-ranking with Russia, so the Russian side has not accepted.

The Russian side, of course, also raised the bar, loudly criticizing Ukraine’s 10 negotiating points as unrealistic and unacceptable.

But we predict that both sides, Russia and Ukraine, will have to gradually adjust each other’s positions, make concessions to each other, but at the same time continue to fight to put pressure on each other, and put pressure on the international community, then finally come to a meeting, and sign a peace agreement.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy took advantage of the Davos Global Economic Conference to present his proposal for peace negotiations with Russia to leaders of other countries.

The Davos Conference takes place in the city of Davos-Switzerland, from January 15 to 19, 2024.

The Davos global economic conference – The World Economic Forum (WEF) began in 1971 and is held annually in the city of Davos, Switzerland, attracting about 1,000 to 3,000 guests, State and Government leaders, and leaders of large companies and large economic groups around the world came to meet, discuss and give opinions on global socio-economic development.

This year, 2024, WEF is held from January 15 to 19 also in the city of Davos, Switzerland.

Russian President Putin did not attend, of course, because of the International Court’s arrest warrant against him for “war crimes” he committed in Ukraine.

And Ukrainian President Zelenskyy attended, and took the opportunity to meet with world leaders, to gain the support of other countries, and put forward a 10-point proposal on peace in Ukraine with Russia.

Ukraine’s position is still rigid and high-minded, because Ukraine demands that the Russian side withdraw all troops from Ukrainian territory, return all lands that Russia has occupied from February 2022 to the present, and even Russia must also return the Crimean city that Russia has occupied since 2014.

The Russian side did not accept Ukraine’s proposals, because it would lose face for Russia, it would mean Russia had to accept defeat, and Russia would surrender to Ukraine.

If that were the case, it could not be called negotiations, which should be called “fighting at the negotiating table”.

Negotiation means making concessions to each other. If you don’t make concessions, the only way is to continue the war, and winning or losing on the battlefield will determine the consequences of the war.

We know that if there is no winner or loser, then peace negotiations to end the war are not simple, and it takes a lot of time to survey each other’s opinions, explore each other’s strength, and explore each other’s mind-set, test each other’s bravery, and check world opinion, etc.

During the Vietnam War, the negotiation process to sign the Paris Agreement on Peace in Vietnam also took a lot of time, from around 1965, it was not signed until January 1973. The negotiations lasted for a long time for nearly 10 years.

And before the signing, at the end of 1972, the Americans also launched two brutal bombings of Linebecker 1 and 2 on Hanoi, to pressure Hanoi to sign the Peace Agreement based on America’s wishes, but the US failed in these two bombing raids, so it had to sit at the negotiating table and sign the Paris Agreement at the suggestion of Hanoi. The former Saigon government did not accept and did not sign this Paris Agreement.

So, similarly, the current peace negotiations in Ukraine will not be simple, but they will probably not last as long as the Vietnam War, and will probably end before the US election in November 2024.

If the Ukrainian side replaces the current rigid 10-point peace proposal with the 5-point peace proposal as below, it will be easily accepted by the Russian side, and a peace agreement will soon be signed:

1- Cease fire.

2- Maintain the status quo.

3- Establish a Demilitarized Zone.

4- Russia withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territories, temporarily allowing the self-proclaimed States of Ukraine to manage those territories.

5- The International Court annulled the Arrest Warrant against Russian President Putin.

With this 5-point proposal, the Ukrainian side will win a resounding victory, the Russian army will withdraw from Ukrainian territory, and the Ukrainian side will only have to deal with self-proclaimed states within Ukrainian territory from now on.

As for the Russian side, they will win a face-saving Victory with Ukraine, a victory for which the Russian side paid a heavy price during the two years of war, a victory that can be called a Pyrrhic Victory, winning but paying too high a price is almost like losing.

In February 2022, the Russian side attacked Ukraine like a storm, sending a convoy of more than 2,000 tanks stretching more than 100 km, entering Ukraine as if intending to enter an empty place, with the prediction that the Ukrainian army would lose and flee, and would be defeated in 2 weeks, and the Russian side will arrest Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to take him to Russia for detention, and Russia will establish a Russian puppet government in Ukraine.

But the Russian side failed with those intentions, and the war in Ukraine has lasted for 2 years, and nearly whole loving- peace- world support Ukraine, the Russian side suffered too much damage and loss, both in the lives of Russian soldiers and socio-economic damage.

But the consequences of the Ukraine war in Russia will last for many years later on, it will take many years for Russia to recover the damage caused by the Ukraine war.

Therefore, although the Russian side is considered the winning side in the Ukraine war, it was actually a Pyrrhic Victory – a victory that came at a very high price.

Greek history recorded this Pyrrhic victory as follows:

The king of Epirus, the old name for modern-day Greece, was King Pyrhus, who fought the Roman army in 279-280 BC, and won, but suffered so many losses that King Pyrrhus had to utter the following famous words:

“If I achieve a victory again, I shall return to Epirus without any soldier”.

The Russians today are the same, if they win Ukraine again one more war, they will have nothing left, they will lose everything, only a few Russian soldiers will be left holding the flag of victory on the ashes and ruins of the Russian people.

But of course the Russian side has not yet acknowledged their Pyrrhic Victory, they are also still arrogant and rigid.

Russian President Putin said on January 16, 2024, in response to Ukraine’s peace proposal, that “The so-called Peace formula is just prohibitive demands, and if they do not want to negotiate, then don’t!”

Both sides are still rigid, still playing at each other’s expense, and Russia and Ukraine will probably fight a few more big battles to put pressure on each other, before they will gradually de-escalate, and sit with each other, with new concessions to stop the war.///